Key Takeaways

The Ax OH Tax constitutional amendment to abolish Ohio property taxes is closer to the 2026 ballot than many contractors realize. This campaign directly threatens the public-project pipeline along the I-75 and I-70 corridors that ABC Ohio Valley members rely on for school construction, fire stations, libraries, and municipal infrastructure, with Ohio citizens as the primary stakeholders affected by the repeal.

• Campaign status: The Campaign to Abolish Property Taxes (Ax OH Tax) is an active citizen-led effort, formally known as the Ohio Eliminate and Prohibit Taxes on Real Property Initiative, working to place a constitutional amendment on the November 2026 ballot through the elections process. Co-founded by Brian Massie, the campaign has reportedly gathered about 305,000 signatures toward the 413,488 valid signatures needed by the July 1, 2026, deadline. Leadership has indicated a mid-June internal decision point on whether to push for November 2026 or pivot to 2027.
• Revenue at stake: Eliminating property taxes in Ohio could result in a loss of $21.4 billion in annual revenue, nearly equal to the combined revenue from the state sales and income taxes. Property taxes currently generate roughly $24.7 billion annually in Ohio, with approximately 65% of property tax revenue supporting public education. This funding underwrites essential services and capital programs for schools, police and fire stations, libraries, parks, and local infrastructure—core markets for merit shop contractors in Cincinnati, Dayton, Springfield, Lima, Northern Kentucky, and Southeastern Indiana.
• Transition risks: Repeal would trigger at least a one-year transition window where state and local officials must either replace this revenue with higher sales or income taxes or accept deep service and capital spending cuts. Opponents, including a coalition of over 60 local organizations, argue that repealing property taxes would severely impact services such as schools, public safety, and community infrastructure. Experts warn that losing roughly $24 billion in annual revenue from property taxes would necessitate massive increases in other taxes, potentially raising sales tax to 15–20% or state income tax to as high as 11–15%.
• Workforce impact: If property taxes are eliminated, local governments could face massive layoffs, with estimates suggesting over 32,000 police officers, firefighters, and EMS personnel could lose their jobs, along with a significant number of teachers. This puts both public backlogs and local government credit ratings at risk.
• Advocacy imperative: ABC Ohio Valley’s Advocacy Pillar calls on contractors to engage now through ABC Ohio Valley advocacy channels, the ABC Action App, the Ohio Merit Shop Scorecard, and the ABC Legislative Conference 2026 to shape whatever comes next. The state government will play a critical role in managing the transition and protecting citizens’ interests. Waiting to see what the ballot does is not a strategy—it’s a competitive disadvantage.

1. Why Ohio’s Property Tax Repeal Fight Matters to Merit Shop Contractors Now

Consider this your briefing on a policy fight that will reshape the backlog across the Ohio Valley. If you run a construction firm in Cincinnati, Dayton, Springfield, Lima, Northern Kentucky, or Southeastern Indiana, what happens with Ohio property taxes over the next 18 months will directly affect whether your estimators have school bond projects to bid, whether your superintendents have fire station work to staff, and whether your project managers have county facility renovations in the pipeline. Local-level decisions about property tax funding directly impact the services available to citizens in these communities.

The Ax OH Tax amendment would permanently abolish Ohio property taxes through a constitutional amendment. This is not a rate reduction or a targeted exemption. It would eliminate property taxes entirely, reshaping how schools, counties, and cities pay for capital projects and essential services that merit shop contractors build every year. Property taxes are a critical revenue source at the local level, funding schools, counties, and cities, and supporting the fiscal stability of local governments and the protection of property rights.

Connect this to your typical backlog: school district construction across suburban Cincinnati and Dayton, fire and police facilities in growing I-75 corridor suburbs, county jail and justice facilities in Clark and Allen counties, libraries and community centers in smaller towns. Public owners in Hamilton, Montgomery, Clark, Allen, and surrounding counties rely on property taxes as their largest stable revenue source—particularly for debt service on bonds funding K-12 and civic construction.

The campaign’s current timeline targets the November 2026 statewide ballot. That aligns directly with planning horizons for 2027–2029 capital programs that your firm is pricing and staffing for today. The information in this article gives ABC Ohio Valley members the insider intelligence and competitive edge that comes from engaging early through advocacy rather than reacting after the ballot outcome.

2. Inside the Ax OH Tax Campaign and the 2026–2027 Ballot Timeline

The Campaign to Abolish Property Taxes operates under the Ax OH Tax banner. Co-founded by Brian Massie, the campaign has one goal: to eliminate all Ohio property taxes via a constitutional amendment. This is an active citizen-led campaign, officially titled the Ohio Eliminate and Prohibit Taxes on Real Property Initiative, working to place a constitutional amendment on the November 2026 ballot to ban these taxes.

Here is where the campaign stands as of late spring 2026:

Metric	Current Status	Requirement
Signatures gathered	~305,000	413,488 minimum
Deadline	July 1, 2026	125 days before election
Counties needed	Unknown	44 of 88
Target buffer	620,000	To absorb invalidations

In Ohio, the number of signatures required to get an initiated constitutional amendment placed on the ballot is equal to 10 percent of the votes cast in the preceding gubernatorial election. Petitioners must gather signatures from at least 44 of Ohio’s 88 counties, and each county must provide a minimum of half the total required percentage of the gubernatorial vote. Petitions may circulate indefinitely, but signatures are due 125 days prior to the general election on which proponents want the initiative to appear.

Common Cause Ohio Director Catherine Turcer has flagged a critical technical issue: roughly 20% of Ohioans move every year, which means signatures collected months ago may no longer match current voter registrations. This “signature aging” problem could invalidate thousands of otherwise valid signatures when the Secretary of State cross-references submissions.

Massie has publicly stated that Ax OH Tax will make an internal decision by mid-June 2026 on whether to push hard to hit the 2026 submission threshold or deliberately slow down and target a 2027 ballot attempt. If Ax OH Tax submits signatures by July 1 but they are invalid, Ohio law allows a 10-day cure period to submit additional signatures. Failure after that window pushes the effort to at least November 2027 or forces a restart.

For construction planning purposes, whether the question lands in November 2026 or November 2027, long-term public project funding assumptions in Ohio Valley markets are now officially in play.

3. What Ohio Property Taxes Fund Today: $24.7 Billion in Local Lifeblood

The statewide property tax numbers translate directly into the capital programs and operating budgets that create construction opportunities. Every dollar of this revenue stream eventually becomes a contract scope, a change order, or a maintenance budget that merit shop firms compete for.

Ohio property taxes generated about $18.3 billion in 2020 and have surged to roughly $24.7 billion today—a 35% increase in just five to six years. This growth has fueled taxpayer frustration but has also underpinned the local government’s financial capacity, enabling public construction.

Abolishing property taxes in Ohio would eliminate approximately $21.4 billion in annual revenue, which is crucial for funding local governments and schools. Such a significant loss would have a major impact on the state’s finances, making responsible fiscal management by the state government essential to avoid destabilizing local budgets and threatening funding for essential public services. That figure is nearly equal to the combined revenue from the state sales tax and state income tax, putting in perspective just how central property taxes are to Ohio’s state and local finances.

Where property tax revenue goes:

• K-12 schools (operating + bonds): Roughly two-thirds of total collections, approximately 65% of property tax revenue supporting public education
• Counties: Justice facilities, administrative buildings, sheriff operations
• Cities and townships: Fire/EMS, police, parks, streets, public works
• Technical schools and libraries: Workforce development and community services
• Special districts: Parks, water, sanitation, developmental disabilities services

These revenue streams fund the specific project types ABC Ohio Valley members build: new and renovated school buildings in suburban Cincinnati and Dayton, fire and police stations in growing I-75 corridor suburbs, county jail and justice facilities in Clark and Allen counties, libraries and community centers across the region.

Ohio’s local governments collectively hold more than $22 billion in property-tax-backed bonds. Steady property tax collections serve as collateral behind capital improvement plans for the next decade. For contractors, this seemingly boring revenue source is what turns into multi-million-dollar bid opportunities every year. Abolishing it without a replacement plan introduces immediate uncertainty into five- to ten-year backlog planning.

4. Drivers of the Repeal Push: Taxpayer Anger vs. Revenue Reality

Property tax collections, which rose from $18.3 billion in 2020 to $24.7 billion today, reflect rapidly escalating valuations, especially in metro counties like Hamilton, Warren, Butler, Montgomery, and Franklin. These valuation spikes have intensified homeowner anger and created the political fuel for the repeal campaign.

Proponents of repealing property taxes argue that high property taxes threaten homeownership and push seniors out of generational homes. The Ax OH Tax messaging emphasizes that Ohioans are being “taxed out of their homes,” that about 65% of property taxes go to schools, and that the political branches of the state government have failed to honor constitutional protections for property rights, safeguard the welfare of citizens, and limit government growth.

Cleveland State University tax professor John Plecnik frames it this way: taxpayers “are saying they are overtaxed rather than asking to be taxed in new and different ways.” The repeal push is driven by frustration with the total burden, not a nuanced tax mix debate.

Property taxes carry unique pain compared to sales or income taxes: failure to pay can ultimately cost owners their homes or commercial properties. This feeds the emotional intensity behind repeal efforts in a way that income or sales tax increases simply cannot.

Currently, local voters approve or reject property tax levies, allowing communities to determine how to fund services. A state-level repeal would remove this local autonomy entirely.

But here is the construction industry exposure: rising valuations have also increased holding costs for commercial property owners and developers in Cincinnati’s urban core, Dayton’s suburbs, and logistics hubs along I-70 and I-75, making some projects harder to pencil out.

The central tension is clear: Ohioans want relief from steep property tax bills, but wholesale abolition would rip out the primary funding mechanism for the very public facilities that merit shop contractors design, build, and maintain.

5. Legislative Response: The $3 Billion Reform Package vs. Full Repeal

The Ohio General Assembly passed several bills in late 2025 to provide approximately $3 billion in targeted relief over several years, including caps on certain tax increases. This package represents the legislative alternative to full repeal—an attempt to soften valuation spikes and lower bills without abolishing the tax entirely. The state government has emphasized its responsibility to manage the state’s finances and ensure fiscal stability through this reform package, aiming to prevent financial crises at the local level and maintain funding for essential public services.

Key features of the 2025 reform package:

• Caps or restraints on rapid valuation jumps
• Targeted relief for seniors and low-income homeowners
• Recalibration of formulas that drove sharp increases in 2023–2024 reassessments

Senate Finance Chair Jerry Cirino has pushed back publicly against the repeal amendment. His argument: the 2025 reforms have not yet had time to show up in tax bills, and lawmakers should be allowed to “finish the job” on reform before voters blow up the entire system. Property owners will not feel the impact of most of those changes until the second half of 2026—after signatures have already been submitted and potentially after the amendment is on the ballot.

Ax OH Tax counters that incremental legislative fixes cannot resolve what they view as a structurally broken funding model dependent on taxing property to pay for schools and local government growth.

Opponents, including a coalition of over 60 local organizations, argue that repealing property taxes would severely impact services such as schools, public safety, and community infrastructure.

For ABC Ohio Valley members, the strategic challenge is clear: contractors must evaluate whether supporting additional legislative reforms and targeted relief measures could defuse political momentum for full repeal while preserving a predictable public project pipeline. Under its Advocacy Pillar, ABC Ohio Valley is monitoring both the reform track at the Statehouse and the constitutional amendment track at the ballot box. Members will receive detailed briefings at the ABC Legislative Conference 2026.

6. What Happens If Property Taxes Are Abolished? Replacement Scenarios and Risks

If voters approve the amendment in November 2026 or 2027, the text provides roughly a one-year transition window before property taxes are fully abolished. During that window, state and local leaders must decide whether to replace or absorb the loss of roughly $ 24 billion in annual revenue.

Ohioans to Protect Public Services spokesperson Jen Detwiler has warned that without a detailed replacement plan, the realistic options are stark:

Scenario 1: Sales Tax Increases Compensating entirely via sales tax could push combined state and local rates toward 15–20%. Ohio’s current combined rate ranges from 5.75% to 8%, depending on jurisdiction. A jump to 18–20% would be the highest sales-tax rate in the nation and would almost certainly trigger cross-border shopping into Kentucky and Indiana.

Scenario 2: Income Tax Increases. Replacing property taxes with income taxes could push state brackets toward mid-teens percentages—estimates suggest state income tax could rise to 11–15%. Ohio’s current top rate is approximately 5.75%. Such increases would raise concerns about the out-migration of high-income residents and the difficulty of recruiting talent for professional and skilled trades positions.

Scenario 3: Service and Capital Cuts. The elimination of property taxes could lead to significant cuts in essential services, including public safety, education, and infrastructure maintenance, as these services rely heavily on property tax funding. Opponents of the property tax repeal argue that it would lead to drastic reductions in essential services such as public safety, education, and infrastructure maintenance, potentially causing local governments to face bankruptcy.

Abolishing property taxes could result in massive layoffs, with estimates suggesting that over 32,000 police officers, firefighters, and EMS personnel could lose their jobs, along with a significant number of teachers.

Any replacement mix would likely vary by region. Jurisdictions in the Ohio Valley—Hamilton County, Montgomery County, Clark County, Allen County, and Northern Kentucky counties—could adopt different strategies. This complicates market forecasting for contractors active across multiple counties and states.

7. Dual Exposure for Contractors: Public Pipeline Risk vs. Private-Side Upside

ABC Ohio Valley members face dual exposure: heavy dependence on property-tax-funded public work, plus direct and indirect benefits if commercial property carrying costs drop. Understanding both sides of this equation is critical for portfolio planning.

Public-Side Risks

If property taxes vanish without robust replacements, expect:

• Cancellation or delay of school bond programs in Cincinnati and Dayton suburbs
• Postponement of county and municipal safety building projects
• Shelving of parks and library expansions currently in early planning
• Weaker or downgraded local government credit ratings

If $22+ billion in property-tax-backed bonds lose their revenue base, borrowing costs rise, and the volume of financeable capital projects shrinks—especially in mid-sized communities like Springfield and Lima, where bond capacity is already limited.

Private-Side Upside

Abolishing property taxes lowers long-term holding costs for commercial owners and developers. This could improve pro formas for:

• Office-to-residential conversions in urban cores
• Industrial and logistics facilities along I-75 and I-70
• Infill retail and mixed-use development in Cincinnati and Dayton
• Speculative warehouse and distribution projects

Lower carrying costs could tip some speculative industrial and warehouse projects from “wait” to “go,” particularly in logistics corridors where Ohio competes with Kentucky and Indiana for distribution centers and advanced manufacturing facilities.

Portfolio Thinking

Firms over-weighted to public K-12 and civic work may need to rebalance toward private commercial, industrial, and multifamily opportunities to hedge against potential public spending retrenchment. The time to build relationships with industrial developers, healthcare systems, and commercial property investors is now—not after a successful repeal vote forces reactive repositioning.

8. Market-by-Market Impact: Cincinnati, Dayton, Springfield, Lima, Northern Kentucky, and SE Indiana

Abolition or radical reform of property taxes would play out differently across key ABC Ohio Valley markets. Here is an on-the-ground assessment of practical business planning implications.

Greater Cincinnati

The region relies heavily on school district levies, county-backed justice and administrative facilities, and city capital improvement programs. Hamilton County, Warren County, Butler County, and Clermont County all have active capital programs that could contract significantly. However, Cincinnati’s strong private commercial and healthcare market (UC Health, Cincinnati Children’s, Mercy Health) might benefit from lower carrying costs. Contractors should assess the current backlog split between school-district-dependent work and diversified private healthcare, commercial, and mixed-use sectors.

Dayton and the I-75/I-70 Crossroads

The Dayton region sits at the intersection of two major corridors. School consolidations, base-adjacent public facilities (proximity to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base drives defense-related activity), and county infrastructure programs drive the public pipeline. Montgomery County and Miami County’s political appetite for alternative taxes will shape the balance between service cuts and new revenue sources. The region’s military and industrial base may be less sensitive to property tax changes than school-heavy suburban areas.

Springfield and Lima

Smaller-city school systems and county governments in Clark County and Allen County may have fewer replacement tools and less capacity to absorb sudden revenue shocks. This raises the likelihood of direct cuts to construction programs if property taxes disappear. Contractors with significant Springfield or Lima backlogs face an acute risk of cancellation.

Northern Kentucky and Southeastern Indiana

Although not directly subject to Ohio’s tax regime, these markets will be affected competitively. If Ohio slashes property taxes but raises sales or income taxes, investors might redirect capital across the river—or vice versa—altering where new industrial, healthcare, and multifamily projects land. Cross-border shopping dynamics and corporate relocation decisions could shift work toward Kentucky or Indiana if Ohio’s replacement tax mix proves unfavorable to business investment.

Map your firm’s current backlog and pipeline by geography and owner type (public vs. private) to see where you are most exposed in each market.

9. ABC Ohio Valley’s Six Pillars and the Advocacy Imperative

ABC Ohio Valley’s Six Pillars framework guides member engagement across workforce development, safety, advocacy, networking, community, and free enterprise. On the property tax repeal fight, the Advocacy Pillar takes center stage.

ABC Ohio Valley serves as the regional voice for merit shop contractors across Ohio, Kentucky, and Indiana on this issue. The association monitors both the Ax OH Tax campaign and legislative reform proposals, translating policy developments into concrete business intelligence for members.

Tools for member engagement:

• ABC Action App: Send personalized messages to legislators on property tax reform and public construction investment
• Ohio Merit Shop Scorecard: Evaluate where elected officials stand on property tax reform and merit shop principles
• ABC Legislative Conference 2026: Get deeper briefings and coordinate advocacy strategies on property tax repeal and related policy fights

Engagement means more than voting. It includes meeting with legislators, testifying on how public capital plans affect workforce development and safety programs, and aligning with ABC Ohio Valley positions to protect public services and defend predictable, opportunity-rich markets.

Advocacy is a competitive necessity in a merit shop market, not an optional civic hobby. Firms that shape the rules of the game will be better positioned than those who wait for ballot results. The repeal campaign has worked for months to reach this point—contractors cannot afford to sit back and watch.

10. Action Steps for Contractors: Scenario Planning and Engagement Checklist

This is your practical playbook. Use these action steps to prepare your firm regardless of how the ballot fight plays out.

Scenario Planning

Run at least three internal scenarios for 2027–2030:

1. Status quo with incremental reforms: Property tax repeal does not happen, 2025 reforms take effect, public capital spending remains relatively stable
2. Significant property tax curbs but no full repeal: Political compromise emerges, taxes decline but do not disappear, public capital spending faces modest contraction
3. Near-total abolition with mixed replacement: Sales tax increases some, income tax increases some, service cuts occur, public capital spending declines substantially

Identify revenue exposure under each scenario and determine which backlog categories are most vulnerable.

Backlog Stress Testing

Project managers and estimators should stress-test backlogs by:

• Owner type (school districts, counties, municipalities, private developers)
• Geography (Cincinnati, Dayton, Springfield, Lima, Northern Kentucky, SE Indiana)
• Funding source (property-tax-backed bonds vs. other revenue)

Identify where bid volume is most vulnerable and where relationships need strengthening.

Diversification Opportunities

Evaluate opportunities to enter:

• Private industrial and logistics work
• Healthcare facility construction
• Higher education projects
• Multifamily development in markets where lower property taxes could catalyze growth

ABC Ohio Valley Advocacy Engagement

• Subscribe to legislative alerts from ABC Ohio Valley
• Download the ABC Action App
• Review the Ohio Merit Shop Scorecard
• Attend the ABC Legislative Conference 2026 for member-only strategy sessions
• Invite legislators to visit jobsites in their districts

The Bottom Line

Firms that engage early and understand the policy terrain will protect their teams, maintain backlog stability, and seize new private-sector opportunities regardless of how the ballot fight plays out. The property tax repeal campaign is not a future concern—it is happening now, with signatures being collected this week and a decision point arriving in mid-June. Your backlog depends on how you respond.

Frequently Asked Questions

How would the one-year transition period after a successful repeal vote actually work?

If voters approve the amendment in November 2026 (or 2027), the constitutional text provides about one year before property taxes are fully abolished. During this window, state and local officials must decide whether to replace or absorb the loss of roughly $ 24 billion in annual revenue.

During this transition period, local governments may rush to restructure bonds, push through last-minute levies, or reprioritize capital budgets. ABC Ohio Valley will track these moves and provide member briefings on how jurisdictions across the region are responding.

Contractors should treat that year as an intense planning period: renegotiating schedules with public owners, reviewing long-term contracts tied to property-tax-backed funding, and adjusting workforce plans in response to evolving capital programs. The closing of that window is when the real impact hits—projects without secured funding will stall or be canceled.

Will existing property-tax-backed bonds for school and civic projects still be honored?

The amendment language raises complex legal questions about how bond obligations tied to property taxes would be serviced going forward. Courts may ultimately play a role in interpreting contractual rights between bondholders, local governments, and the state.

Credit rating agencies will likely reassess Ohio local government debt immediately upon passage, which could impact interest rates on new issuances even if existing bonds remain legally enforceable. The $22+ billion in outstanding property-tax-backed bonds represents real financial exposure.

Contractors with long-term school and civic projects should monitor bond market reactions and talk with owners about funding security and payment timelines. Projects currently under construction with bond proceeds already drawn may be safer than projects still in the design phase, awaiting future bond issuances.

How might the repeal campaign affect construction labor markets and wages?

If public capital programs contract significantly, competition for the remaining public work could intensify as more firms pursue private projects, potentially affecting margins and wage dynamics. Firms that typically win school district work may suddenly be bidding against each other for fewer municipal or county projects.

On the other hand, a surge in private industrial, warehouse, and multifamily development, driven by lower property carrying costs, could offset some of the lost public work and sustain demand for skilled craft professionals. The net effect depends heavily on how quickly private work materializes and which replacement scenario unfolds.

ABC Ohio Valley members should align workforce development and apprenticeship investments with likely growth sectors (industrial, logistics, healthcare) while tracking public program trends through association briefings. People who worked on school construction can adapt to warehouse and industrial work with appropriate training.

Could local governments in the Ohio Valley region create new fees instead of taxes to fund projects?

Even if property taxes are abolished, local governments may still have authority to use impact fees, utility fees, special assessments, and other non-property-tax mechanisms to fund infrastructure and facilities. These tools are already used in some jurisdictions and could be used more widely.

Widespread use of such tools could shift project economics and timing—especially for greenfield development and large site plans in suburban counties along I-75 and I-70. A development that pencils out today might face substantially higher fee loads under a post-property-tax regime.

Contractors and developers should monitor local ordinance changes and work through ABC Ohio Valley to address proposed fee structures that could affect project viability. Early engagement during the fee-setting process is far more effective than reacting after new fees are adopted.

How can smaller contractors with limited bandwidth realistically engage in advocacy on this issue?

Effective advocacy does not require a full-time government affairs staff. Small firms can make a meaningful impact through targeted actions coordinated by ABC Ohio Valley.

Simple steps that work:

• Respond to ABC action alerts when they arrive in your inbox
• Use the ABC Action App to send personalized messages to legislators (takes 2 minutes)
• Attend one or two key events like the ABC Legislative Conference 2026
• Invite lawmakers to visit your jobsites in their districts

When elected officials hear directly from employers that provide good-paying, merit-shop jobs, it changes how they think about property tax reform, public construction investment, and regulatory policy affecting the industry. A state representative who visits a school construction site in their district remembers that visit when voting on tax policy. Your voice matters—use it.